May. 13, 2024
This article outlines the advice I gave students and includes updates on some of the concepts to my current thinking on lean market validation. For many first-timers with great ideas, the process is exciting but also a bit intimidating. I believe that the tactics can help both entrepreneurs and product managers launch better products with a higher chance of succeeding in the market.
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What is market validation? It’s a question I hear a lot, especially when mentoring newer entrepreneurs and product managers.
Market validation is the process of determining whether your product is of interest to a given target market. Market validation involves a series of customer interviews with people in your target market, and it almost always takes place before you’ve made a significant investment in your product/concept.
The goal for my talk at Startup Weekend was simple: To lay out a few practical tips for entrepreneurs to quickly validate their ideas. I also wanted to help them understand that even first-time entrepreneurs can launch successful products by taking a few easy (and often free) steps.
After using lean market validation to launch several software products, including ProductPlan, I’ve discovered that with the right process, even inexperienced entrepreneurs can bring exceptional products to market with excited buyers on the first day.
Here are my tips for using lean market validation to confirm whether you have a product/market fit with real customers. By simply engaging with real people and asking the right questions, you can confirm if your idea solves a problem, who your potential buyers are, and ultimately whether or not there’s a market for your product.
Just the simple act of writing forces you to consider things you may have previously glossed over. I’m not talking about writing a “business plan.” (For startups, a business plan isn’t the best use of time and will change as soon as you start talking with prospective customers).
I’m talking about answering a few key questions that you can go out and test. These are your assumptions, and the sooner you can test them, the less risk you will have when launching your product.
You can start with the questions below or use a tool such as the Business Model Canvas to guide your thinking.
Write down some basic assumptions that you can go out and test:
At Startup Weekend, 54 hours go quickly. The same concept holds for startups and new products in the real world. Time and resources are scarce. There isn’t time to agonize over details that, in the end, may not matter.
For that reason, lean market validation helps successful teams get just enough information and data to make decisions. And then they make them. I like to adhere to the 80% rule — get just enough (valid) information from customer interviews and other data sources and then decide. In the end, you will never get to 100% certainty, and getting close will eat up an excessive amount of time.
This brings me to my third point: All the writing you do, the discussions (and debating) you have, are assumptions. Teams often take these discussions (and what’s in their heads) as facts when they are simply assumptions that need to be tested.
I like to think of the scientific method when reviewing ideas — how can they be tested?
I often see teams (at Startup Weekend and at startups) debate minor details, waste valuable time rather than make a guess (a temporary decision), and then get out into the real world to test whether it’s the right idea. It’s essential just to make a guess and get started because your assumptions may turn out to be wrong, and you’ll have spent valuable time (not to mention the toll on team dynamics) debating something that didn’t matter in the first place.
As soon as you’ve made some basic decisions, and written down your assumptions, get out to test them to see if they resonate with potential customers. I encouraged Startup Weekend attendees to get out on the street and save valuable time by getting on the phone if the customer type warrants.
Lean market validation relies on customer interviews with potential buyers of your product. You can also test your assumptions by interviewing experts (for example, analysts for the industry, people who have been employed by the industry, consultants, etc.). There are also some great ways to test digital ideas with landing pages and inexpensive ads.
I’m often asked how teams can easily find prospects to speak with. I recommend working with your own network and the networks of friends, mentors, investors, and others to reach potential customers.
The downside of interviewing people in your network is they are friendly to your cause. This means that you are introducing some potential bias into your learning. But my attitude is that some bias is better than not interviewing and getting closer to the truth.
When I mention interviewing, I’m not talking about a cursory conversation (or worse, a survey). Start with a list of questions but deviate from the questions as you learn more information. Approach the conversation with a sense of curiosity about the customer’s problem and needs, and you’ll get some really valuable insight.
Download our Customer Interview Tool Box, including templates you can use to track your interviews.
“Why?” is by far the most important question you can ask. With it, you can get closer to the truth from customers. Unfortunately, this question isn’t used often enough — too many people ask a question and then take the answer at face value. It’s a missed opportunity to understand motivation and validate what someone would really do.
The Five Whys is a great technique for getting to the underlying reason — the real reason — behind a customer’s motivation.
I encourage entrepreneurs to focus less on features and more on explaining the value proposition for their product. What does that mean? A value proposition is the expected gains that a customer would receive from using your product. Value can be quantitative, such as time saved or additional revenue earned. Measuring this is usually straightforward.
But value can also be qualitative, such as pain relief or lifestyle benefits your product provides. By thoroughly understanding and documenting this qualitative value through customer interviews, you can set your product apart from the competition.
For example, it could be time saved, more revenue, or maybe some social benefit (like looking good). Whatever it is, these value propositions are directly tied to the problems that you have previously discovered.
Unfortunately, validating a product idea with prospective customers is subjective. There is no black and white answer. In fact, because people are generally nice and want to please you (especially the friendly university students at Startup Weekend), you need to be careful about accepting their answers at face value.
When someone tells you enthusiastically, “it sounds great,” or “that’s an interesting idea,” your first reaction should be to follow up with “why?” It’s important to understand that someone liking your idea is not the same as buying the product. Your challenge during your lean market validation process eliminates as much of these “false positives” as much as possible.
My advice to the group (and all entrepreneurs) is to take a risk, jump off the cliff, and have fun with the lean market validation experience. It’s taking chances that are the hallmark of successful entrepreneurs, and using these techniques helps you get closer to success.
People who are tested for COVID-19 should receive clear information on:
Individuals tested are required to receive patient fact sheets as part of the test’s Emergency Use Authorization (EUA).
SARS-CoV-2 co-infection with another pathogen, including a respiratory virus, bacterium, or fungus, has been documented, particularly in hospitalized patients.(10,11) Detection of a different respiratory pathogen does not rule out SARS-CoV-2 infection. Testing for other causes of respiratory illness, in addition to testing for SARS-CoV-2, may be considered, depending on:
More information on coinfection and recommendations on antimicrobial stewardship or systematic approaches to using antimicrobials can be found on CDC’s Testing Guidance for Clinicians When SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza Viruses are Co-circulating and the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) COVID-19 Real-Time Learning Network.
Several markers of inflammation and abnormal coagulation are associated with severe COVID-19 illness.(12,13) Studies found that hospitalized patients with COVID-19 may have coagulation abnormalities including increased D-dimer concentration, a modest decrease in platelet count, and a prolongation of the prothrombin time.(13) One study that compared markers of inflammation in patients with and without COVID-19 observed modestly lower leukocyte, lymphocyte, and platelet counts and higher hemoglobin values in patients with COVID-19.(12) This study also noted that serum albumin, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, and red cell distribution width were each associated with disease severity.(12)
Viral tests, including nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs, such as PCR tests), antigen tests and other tests (such as breath tests) are used as diagnostic tests to detect current infection with SARS-CoV-2, determine the need for prevention measures like isolation, and inform an individual’s medical care. Viral tests can also be used as screening tests.
Viral tests:
Positive viral test results indicate current, or sometimes recent, infection and the person with COVID-19 should follow CDC recommendations for isolation.
Negative viral test results mean the test did not detect the virus, but this doesn’t rule out that you could have an infection. These results represent a snapshot of the time around specimen collection and could change if the same test was performed again in one or more days. Negative antigen test results should be repeated following FDA guidance.
Antibody (or serology) tests are used to test for the presence of antibodies from previous infection or vaccination and can aid in fulfilling the case definition for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) and adults (MIS-A).2 Antibody testing does not diagnose current infection. Antibody testing is primarily used for public health surveillance and epidemiologic purposes. Antibody tests detect specific antibodies that target different parts (nucleocapsid or spike protein) of the virus. Detection of anti-nucleocapsid antibody indicates SARS-CoV-2 infection, while anti-spike protein antibody may be induced by COVID-19 vaccination or by SARS-CoV-2 infection. This should be considered when choosing whether to test for antibodies originating from past infection versus those from vaccination.
FDA continually monitors the accuracy of COVID-19 tests. Their website provides up-to-date information on the impact of viral mutations on COVID-19 tests. See FDA’s list of In Vitro Diagnostics Emergency Use Authorizations for more information about the performance and interpretation of specific authorized tests.
Diagnostic testing is intended to identify current infection. It is performed when a person has signs or symptoms consistent with COVID-19 or is asymptomatic but has recent known or suspected exposure to someone with COVID-19.
Screening testing is intended to identify people with COVID-19 who are asymptomatic or do not have any known, suspected, or reported exposure to someone with COVID-19.
Public health surveillance testing is conducted to specifically monitor population-level burden of disease, or to characterize the incidence and prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Surveillance testing is primarily used to gain information at a population level, rather than an individual level, and involves testing of de-identified specimens. Surveillance testing results are not reported back to the individual. As such, surveillance testing cannot be used for an individual’s healthcare decision-making or individual public health actions, such as isolation. Examples of public health surveillance testing are genomic surveillance and wastewater surveillance.
When choosing which test to use, it is important to understand the purpose of the testing (diagnostic or screening), test performance in context of current COVID-19 incidence, need for rapid results, and other considerations (See Table 1). Positive predictive values (probability that the person testing positive is actually infected) and negative predictive values (probability that the person testing negative is actually not infected) of NAAT and antigen tests vary depending upon the pretest probability. Pretest probability considers both the prevalence of COVID-19 in the community and the clinical context of the individual being tested. CDC provides general information on sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for antigen tests and antibody tests. For information on a specific test, refer to FDA’s website.
Table 1 summarizes some characteristics of NAATs and antigen tests to consider for a testing program. Laboratories that perform screening or diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 must have a CLIA certificate and meet regulatory requirements. Tests that have received an EUA from FDA for point-of-care (POC) use can be performed with a CLIA certificate of waiver.
Vaccination does not affect the results of someone’s SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic or screening tests (NAAT, antigen or other diagnostic tests).
The main effect of vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 testing is related to antibody testing. Because mRNA COVID-19 vaccines use the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to generate an immune response, a positive serologic (antibody) test for spike protein IgM/IgG could indicate either previous infection or vaccination.
Antibody testing is not currently recommended to assess a person’s protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection or severe COVID-19 following COVID-19 vaccination or prior infection, or to assess the need for vaccination in an unvaccinated person. Antibody testing can be used in the diagnosis of Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) or Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Adults (MIS-A).
To evaluate for evidence of previous infection in a vaccinated individual, use an antibody test specifically evaluating IgM/IgG to the nucleocapsid protein. For example, specific antibody tests can be used for public health surveillance.
Table 1. NAAT and Antigen Test Differences to Consider When Planning for Diagnostic or Screening Use
Intended Use
Intended Use
Diagnose current infection
Diagnose current infection
Diagnose current infection
Diagnose current infection
Analyte Detected
Analyte Detected
Viral ribonucleic acid (RNA)
Viral ribonucleic acid (RNA)
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Related links:Viral antigens
Viral antigens
Specimen Type(s)
Specimen Type(s)
Nasal, Nasopharyngeal, Oropharyngeal, Sputum, Saliva
Nasal, Nasopharyngeal, Oropharyngeal, Sputum, Saliva
Nasal, Nasopharyngeal
Nasal, Nasopharyngeal
Sensitivity
Sensitivity
Varies by test, but generally high for laboratory-based tests and moderate-to-high for point-of-care (POC) tests
Varies by test, but generally high for laboratory-based tests and moderate-to-high for point-of-care (POC) tests
Less sensitive than NAATs. Varies by test and depending on the course of infection+*
Less sensitive than NAATs. Varies by test and depending on the course of infection+*
Specificity
Specificity
High
High
High
High
Test Complexity
Test Complexity
Varies by test
Varies by test
Relatively easy to use
Relatively easy to use
Authorized for Use at the Point-of-Care
Authorized for Use at the Point-of-Care
Most are not, some are
Most are not, some are
Most are, some are not
Most are, some are not
Turnaround Time
Turnaround Time
Most 1–3 days; some are rapid with results in 15 minutes
Most 1–3 days; some are rapid with results in 15 minutes
Ranges from 15 minutes to 30 minutes
Ranges from 15 minutes to 30 minutes
Cost/Test
Cost/Test
~$75-$100/test
~$75-$100/test
~$5-$50/test
~$5-$50/test
Advantages
Advantages
Most sensitive test method available
Short turnaround time for NAAT POC tests, but few available
Usually does not need to be repeated to confirm results
Most sensitive test method available
Short turnaround time for NAAT POC tests, but few available
Usually does not need to be repeated to confirm results
Short turnaround time (approximately 15 minutes) ◊
Cost-effective
Some can be performed at-home, or anywhere else
Short turnaround time (approximately 15 minutes) ◊
Cost-effective
Some can be performed at-home, or anywhere else
Disadvantages
Disadvantages
Longer turnaround time for lab-based tests (1–3 days)
Higher cost per test
After an infection has ended, and the risk of transmission has passed, people may have detectable RNA and test positive for up to 90 days
Longer turnaround time for lab-based tests (1–3 days)
Higher cost per test
After an infection has ended, and the risk of transmission has passed, people may have detectable RNA and test positive for up to 90 days
Negative tests should be confirmed by NAAT or repeated as recommended by FDA
Less sensitive (more false negative results) compared to NAATs, especially among asymptomatic people and with some variants
Negative tests should be confirmed by NAAT or repeated as recommended by FDA
Less sensitive (more false negative results) compared to NAATs, especially among asymptomatic people and with some variants
* As noted in the labeling for authorized over-the-counter antigen tests: negative results should be treated as presumptive (meaning that they are preliminary results). Negative results do not rule out SARS-CoV-2 infection and should not be used as the sole basis for treatment or patient management decisions, including infection control decisions. Please see FDA guidance on the use of at-home COVID-19 antigen tests.
† The decreased sensitivity of antigen tests might be offset if the POC antigen tests are repeated more frequently.
◊ Refers to point-of-care antigen tests only.
Social determinants of health may influence access to testing. For example, travel time may limit access to, and use of, testing services for those who have limited access to transportation and who live in areas with fewer public transit services and schedules. Racial and ethnic disparities in test site distribution have been found.3 Other factors that may affect both access to, and use of, testing services include:
Delays in testing may also delay seeking care and treatment (when sick) as well as delays in self-isolation that could reduce the spread of the virus to others.
CDC’s COVID-19 Response Health Equity Strategy outlines a plan to reduce the disproportionate burden of COVID-19 among people in some racial and ethnic minority groups, people with disabilities, and other population groups (e.g., essential and frontline workers, people living in rural or frontier areas) who have experienced a disproportionate burden of COVID-19. One component to move towards greater health equity is ensuring availability of resources, including access to testing for populations who have experienced longstanding, systemic health and social inequities. All population groups, including racial and ethnic minority groups, should have equal access to affordable, quality, and timely SARS-CoV-2 testing—with fast turnaround time for results—for diagnosis and screening. Efforts should be made to address barriers that might overtly or inadvertently create inequalities in testing.
In addition, completeness of race and ethnicity data is an important factor in understanding the impact the virus has on racial and ethnic minority populations. When possible, healthcare providers and public health professionals should ask and record race and ethnicity for anyone receiving a reportable test result and ensure these data are reported with the person’s test results to facilitate understanding the impact of COVID-19 on racial and ethnic minority populations.
Some strategies to achieve health equity in testing access and availability include:
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